Geneva: Artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of trade in goods and services by nearly 40 percent by 2040 through reduction of trade costs, productivity gains and expanding participation in global market, observed a new World Trade Organization (WTO) report released today.
According to Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha, the report, themed ‘Making trade and AI work together to the benefit of all,’ also projected that the development and deployment of AI will generate a substantial increase in global GDP, ranging from 12 to 13 percent across scenarios. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that AI is reshaping economies and societies and holds the potential to transform production, consumption, and trade.
The Director-General explained that AI promises to boost trade by lowering trade costs and reshaping the production of goods and services. WTO simulations suggest that by 2040, AI could increase exports of goods and services by nearly 40 percent above current trends. She highlighted that the private sector is already experiencing trade-related benefits from AI uptake, with around 90 percent of firms using AI reporting improved efficiency in managing trade risks or compliance with border procedures.
However, the WTO report cautioned that the benefits from AI will not automatically be evenly distributed. Without significant improvements in digital infrastructure and AI uptake, low-income economies might see only modest income growth, while high-income countries could see double-digit increases. The report suggests that narrowing digital and AI divides could almost double the GDP gains for low-income economies, promoting inclusiveness and creating win-win scenarios through deliberate action.
During a press briefing prior to the report’s launch, WTO’s deputy Director-General Johanna Hill and report coordinators discussed key features of the report. Hill noted that uncertainty in trade policy is a significant challenge but also pointed out the positive response of WTO members adhering to trade measures in line with the WTO rulebook.
The report further projected significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040, with global trade expected to rise by 34 to 37 percent across different scenarios, depending on policy and technological advancements. Trade can enable inclusive AI-supported growth by facilitating access to AI-enabling goods such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs, which totaled US$2.3 trillion in 2023.
For AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth, policies must bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open trading environment. The report calls for complementary policies in infrastructure, energy, education, and government support, suggesting closer cooperation between the WTO and other international organizations to support global participation in the AI-driven economy.