Dhaka: Amid domestic economic slowdown due to the scam-hit banking sector, revenue shortfall, high inflation, and the aftermath of war in West Asia, the government is preparing a landmark budget for the upcoming fiscal (2026-27), with a primary focus on establishing a comprehensive ‘Welfare State’, according to officials of the budget section at the Ministry of Finance.
According to United News of Bangladesh, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to present a record Tk 9.30 lakh crore budget in the National Parliament on June 11. The proposed fiscal plan shifts from traditional allowance-based aid to an integrated family-centric protection framework, significantly expanding both funding and the number of beneficiaries.
The government plans to increase the number of social safety net beneficiaries to approximately 3.63 crore in the budget of the upcoming fiscal year, up from 2.60 crore in the current fiscal year, FY2025-26. To support this expansion, the allocation is set to jump to Tk 35,708 crore, compared to the current Tk 21,701 crore, said the officials.
The BNP’s flagship ‘Family Card’ remains the centerpiece of the government’s social security strategy. The number of families under this program is slated to rise to 41 lakh. To prevent duplication, Family Card holders will be ineligible for other individual social allowances, such as old-age or widow benefits. The government aims to cover 1.61 crore families by FY2029-30, with a projected five-year expenditure of Tk 1.33 lakh crore.
To secure the rural economy, the ‘Farmer Card’ program will be expanded to cover 42.5 lakh farmers, each receiving an annual cash assistance of Tk 2,500. In the health sector, the government plans to double the financial assistance for patients suffering from critical illnesses like cancer, kidney disease, and Thalassemia. The grant per patient is expected to increase from Tk 50,000 to Tk 1 lakh for 65,000 beneficiaries.
Reforms in traditional allowances include a rise in the monthly benefit from Tk 650 to Tk 700, with the number of beneficiaries rising to 62 lakh. Citizens aged 90 and above will receive a special monthly rate of Tk 1,000. The monthly Widow Allowance will also rise to Tk 700, while coverage for the Disability Allowance will expand to 36 lakh individuals, with the monthly rate remaining at Tk 900.
In a significant move, the government is massively expanding honorariums for staff at religious institutions. The number of beneficiaries-including Imams, Muazzins, and Priests-will soar from 18,000 to over 2.56 lakh, with the budget increasing from Tk 27 crore to Tk 1,081 crore. Furthermore, to combat inflation-induced food insecurity, the ‘Food-Friendly Program’ will now provide 15 kg of rice at Tk 15 per kg to 60 lakh families.
While the expansion is politically popular and aims to mitigate high inflation, economists warn of severe implementation challenges. Financing such a massive expansion is difficult given the current revenue shortage. The widening budget deficit, exacerbated by global trade volatility, remains a threat to long-term sustainability. Experts emphasize that the success of these programs hinges on a transparent, digitalized beneficiary selection process to ensure aid reaches the truly needy.
According to Dr. Jyoti Rahman, who works as a technical expert with the IMF on macroeconomic and fiscal policy issues, there are two time horizons through which the government’s “welfarist” policies should be viewed. In the short-to-medium term, inflation has eroded real wages, and household savings have declined. Welfare payments, as long as they are fiscally sustainable, can support beleaguered households. In the longer term, the government appears committed to a growth model focused on private investment generating employment and income, which generates tax and redistribution. The key will be whether the government can implement this vision.