Dhaka: The International Crisis Group has highlighted that the incoming administration in Bangladesh will need to address numerous challenges, from weak institutions to an economy heavily reliant on garment exports and remittances, as well as the growing impact of climate change in one of the world’s most densely populated nations.
According to United News of Bangladesh, the next government will also have to navigate complex foreign policy issues, particularly its relationship with India, the implications of the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, and the unresolved status of over one million Rohingya refugees near the Myanmar border. Thomas Kean, Crisis Group’s Senior Consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh, stated that an elected government with a five-year term will be in a better position to manage the country’s political and socio-economic challenges than an interim administration, though the tasks ahead are numerous and intricate.
Kean warned that if the election results are contested, it could lead to a political crisis, challenging the fragile consensus that has supported the transition. He made these remarks in the context of the latest Q and A, ‘Curtain Falls on Bangladesh’s Interim Government as Critical Elections Approach,’ which examines the stakes in Bangladesh’s 12 February election.
Even if the election proceeds peacefully, Kean noted that the next government will face increasing pressure to meet the aspirations of a youthful and frustrated population and to implement reforms, starting with the July Charter. Failing to do so could reinforce perceptions that the promised political change has been largely superficial. Predicting the outcome of the 12 February poll is difficult due to the shifting electoral landscape, he added.
Security risks are significant, with political violence already on the rise. Since the election schedule was announced, at least sixteen politicians have been killed, and there is a real danger of further attacks on candidates and reprisals against Awami League supporters or Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.
Kean emphasized that the elections are crucial for several reasons, including the growing influence of radical Islamist groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir, which have gained prominence since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The capacity of state forces to monitor violent extremist activity remains a concern.
The most important threat to stability, Kean suggested, would come from failing to meet the aspirations of Bangladesh’s youthful population, half of whom are under 30 and many of whom struggle to find suitable employment. Any missteps in implementing reforms, starting with the July Charter, risk reinforcing a perception that political change is merely cosmetic.
The incoming government will also need to address political reconciliation. Given its historical significance and strong electoral base, the Awami League cannot remain on the sidelines indefinitely. However, the party’s actions under Hasina, particularly in July-August 2024, make its return to the electoral arena politically challenging. Kean suggested that India and other influential foreign governments could help facilitate dialogue between the Awami League and the future government.
Foreign governments, many of which have supported figures like Prof Muhammad Yunus, should extend support to the incoming government as it seeks to navigate Bangladesh’s recent turbulence.