Dhaka: The streets of Dhaka remained eerily calm after Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) delivered a death sentence to former prime minister Sheikh Hasina on November 17 for crimes against humanity committed during the 2024 Monsoon Revolution. There were no street protests, no sit-ins, no rallies by Hasina’s sympathisers demanding that her death sentence, awarded in absentia, be rescinded. For a leader whose party once boasted millions of cadres and ruled the country for 15 uninterrupted years, the silence was deafening.
According to TRTworld.com, the absence of protests is attributed to the disintegration of the Awami League (AL), Hasina’s party that ruled Bangladesh from 2009 to 2024. Abul Hasan, an international affairs analyst from Bangladesh currently based at Russia’s National Research University Higher School of Economics, suggests that after Hasina fled to India, many leaders either left the country or went into hiding due to their past transgressions. The interim government has banned many party activities, and grassroots workers now risk arrest if they attempt to mobilize.
Hasina’s 15 years of rule, especially the last five or six years, were marked by totalitarian practices. The former prime minister held absolute decision-making power and allowed foreign actors direct access to key sectors. Zia Chowdhury, a Dhaka-based journalist, points out that Hasina's government turned Bangladesh into a police state through intelligence agencies and the Rapid Action Battalion, a paramilitary force sanctioned by the US for serious human rights violations.
Tarique Niazi, professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin, explains that Hasina relied heavily on security services filled with party loyalists to maintain her authoritarian rule. The ICT, which she established to target her enemies, has now sentenced her to death, a verdict met with silence in Bangladesh. Niazi indicates that Hasina’s political strategy involved turning the AL into a patronage system, rewarding loyalists who acted as enforcers to suppress opposition.
Hasina's close relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi helped fortify ties between Bangladesh and India. However, this alliance eventually led to public resentment, as seen in the "India Out" campaign. Analysts believe that the support for Hasina crumbled rapidly during the 2024 student-led protests against job quotas favoring AL supporters.
Despite the ICT’s verdict, there is little chance of enforcing the death sentence as Hasina remains in exile. Niazi argues that AL supporters consciously chose silence to preserve their remaining political capital. While some commentators view the lack of protests as a sign of intimidation, Niazi maintains that the decision to remain inactive was voluntary.
Looking ahead, analysts see no realistic path for the 78-year-old Hasina to return to power. Hasan predicts a prolonged exile due to a strong domestic opposition and a challenging regional environment. The future of the AL itself is uncertain, with potential leadership from Hasina’s family members being crucial for the party’s survival. Niazi suggests that for the AL to rejuvenate, it must embrace democratic reforms and give up its dynastic tendencies.