Day: March 20, 2023

Restaurants and retail businesses in Macao grew in January from the same period of last year, the special administrative region's (SAR) statistics service said on Friday.

The latest report from the Statistics and Census Service indicated that the revenue of the interviewed restaurants and similar establishments increased by 45.8 percent year on year in January, driven by the relaxation of border control measures and the Chinese New Year holidays.

Sales of the interviewed retailers went up by 35.3 percent year on year in January.

Regarding the business expectations for February, 55 percent of the interviewed restaurants and similar establishments expected their receipts to decrease month on month. Meanwhile, about half of the interviewed retailers forecasted a month-on-month sales drop in February.

Source: Xinhua Finance Agency

China's yuan strengthened against a basket of currencies last week, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS).

The CFETS yuan exchange rate composite index, which measures the yuan's strength relative to a basket of currencies, went up 0.36 points from the previous week to 100.43, according to the CFETS.

The index compares the yuan with the value of 24 currencies, including the U.S. dollar, euro and Japanese yen.

Last week also saw an index that measures the yuan against the Bank for International Settlements currency basket up 0.4 points from the previous week to 105.1.

The index measuring the yuan against the Special Drawing Rights basket gained 0.45 points week on week to 97.02.

Source: Xinhua Finance Agency

Contractors are being hired to remove millions of rotting fish from a river in the Australian Outback after a unprecedented die-off following floods and hot weather, police have said.

Police Assistant Commissioner Brett Greentree said on Monday keeping the town’s water supply pure was the main priority and removing the dead fish was the next most pressing issue.

Trained contractors had been contacted about removing the fish with nets, but dates for the work haven't been set.

“I’m certainly not making promises that all the millions of fish will be removed by contractors because that is really a logistical nightmare,” Greentree said.

“I understand and acknowledge the smell and sights on the river — nobody wants to see that,” he added.

Insufficient oxygen

Authorities were supplying potable water to residents who rely on river water, which was continually being monitored for quality, Greentree said.

Tens of thousands of fish were found at the same spot in late February, while there have been several reports of dead fish downstream toward Pooncarie, near the borders of South Australia and Victoria states.

Enormous fish kills also occurred on the river at Menindee during severe drought conditions in late 2018 and early 2019.

Greentree said the current death toll appeared to be far larger than the events in 2018 and 2019.

Source: TRTworld.com

Iron ore futures closed lower on Monday in daytime trading at the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE).

The most active iron ore contract for May 2023 delivery dipped 22.5 yuan (about 3.28 U.S. dollars) to close at 883 yuan per tonne.

On Monday, the total trading volume of 12 listed iron ore futures contracts on the exchange was 1,072,498 lots, with a turnover of about 94.69 billion yuan.

As the world's largest importer of iron ore, China opened the DCE iron ore futures to international investors in May 2018.

Source: Xinhua Finance Agency

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has accepted the invitation of his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida, to attend the upcoming G7 summit during their bilateral meeting in New Delhi on Monday.

The summit will be held in Hiroshima, Japan, from May 19 to 21. “I formally invited PM Modi to the G-7 Hiroshima Summit and on the spot my invitation was immediately accepted,” Kishida said at the joint press conference held after the bilateral meeting. Modi also invited him to the G20 summit, which will be held in India in September.

Kishida stated that economic cooperation between Tokyo and New Delhi was growing rapidly. Japan is the fifth largest investor in India, with foreign direct investments worth $38.3 billion between April 2000 and December 2022. More than 1,450 Japanese companies are operating in India and many are housed in special economic zones across the country. Tokyo’s economic push would strengthen New Delhi's ‘Make in India’ policy and global supply chains, Kishida said.

During their meeting, the two prime ministers celebrated 70 years of diplomatic ties between their countries and discussed their ongoing relationship, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra told the media. This year “promises to be an exciting one,” with India and Japan holding the rotating presidency of G20 and G7, respectively, he added.

The PMs also discussed defense, security, climate action, energy, innovation and skill development. Regional issues of mutual concern such as maritime security in the Indo-Pacific also featured in the dialogue, the Indian foreign secretary said.

Kishida welcomed the renewal of the Memorandum of Cooperation on Japanese language education. Plans are also afoot to prioritize decarbonization, energy and tourism, he said. Modi spoke about the significance of the India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership and how it has nurtured bilateral ties through the years.

The Hiroshima gathering will be the 49th summit of the Group of Seven – the world’s largest developed economies that comprises the US, Canada, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Japan, as well as the European Union as a “non-enumerated member.” The group was previously known as G8, but Russia’s membership was suspended until further notice after its reunification with Crimea in 2014.

India, Brazil, the Cook Islands, Comoros, Indonesia, South Korea, and Vietnam are participating as special invitees to the summit. Several global organizations such as the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, OECD, the United Nations, World Bank, World Health Organization and World Trade Organization will also be in attendance, represented by their respective heads.

The Hiroshima summit, like the one held last year in the Bavarian Alps in Germany, is expected to center on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis that entered its second year on February 24, China’s growing ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, the revival of the global economy after the Covid-19 pandemic, energy security and climate action.

Source: Russia Today

Chinese President Xi Jinping is paying a critical visit to Russia’s wartime President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where Beijing is expected to step up its mediation efforts between Kiev and the Kremlin after securing a crucial peace deal between the Saudis and Iranians.

Though the West has long dismissed China, like Russia, as an autocracy which can not present itself as a reliable model to other countries, the world’s second-biggest economy has slowly penetrated regions like the Middle East, where the Western sphere of influence has been recently diminishing due to wars and badly-designed policies.

Most recently, mediating the Saudi-Iran reconciliation deal, China has been able to not only project itself as a peacemaker in a chaotic region but also secure a large chunk of its energy needs from the two biggest oil-producing Middle Eastern states, surprising many Western observers with its political sophistication. China is the biggest customer of both Iranian and Saudi oil.

Raffaello Pantucci, a prominent Western expert on China and a senior associate fellow at the British think-tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), assesses the Chinese role in the Saudi-Iran deal as “a substantial way to start” Beijing’s “dynamic” foreign policy involvement in the tumultuous Middle Eastern politics.

“What the Chinese are trying to do is demonstrate that they have a different offer that's on the table that isn't the American offer and that they can bring something else and broker peace,” Pantucci tells TRT World, referring to the recent deal between Saudis, the Middle East’s leading Sunni power, and Iran, the biggest Shia-majority country. Sunni and Shia powers have long fought for political supremacy across the Middle East.

The Chinese mediation corresponds to Xi’s global designs in which Beijing, as the representative of 21st-century communism, should rise in “global governance” to ensure “more stability and positive energy to world peace”, according to the Chinese president, who secured an unprecedented third term last week.

The Saudi-Iran deal is also a win-win situation for both the Middle East and the two regional enemies, which consumed their resources to get the upper hand in conflicts from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where mixed Sunni and Shia populations live.

While Pantucci says China’s long-term political relevance in Middle Eastern politics remains to be seen, he still finds Beijing’s intervention to help “bring Riyadh and Tehran together” a sophisticated way to launch its engagement with the region. The deal is definitely not coincidental for China, which is the largest trading state with the Saudis and the top export partner of Iranians.

“Over the years, in addition to developing economic and trade cooperation with Middle Eastern countries, China has also been paying attention to the security of the Middle East and actively promoting peace in the Middle East,” says Hongda Fan, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.

“As the national, regional and international situation changes, both China and the Middle Eastern countries need to deepen their relations. Because the lack of security in the Middle East not only brings difficulties to the local people but also poses increasingly obvious challenges to the deepening of relations between China and the region,” Hongda tells TRT World.

The Chinese professor believes that China and the Middle Eastern states will continue to increase their cooperation in more fields, making ties “deeper and deeper”.

West’s diminishing influence

While Pantucci sees Chinese engagement with the Middle East as “an interesting dynamic”, he thinks “it really is more about people's relations with the West, in particular with the United States, than it really is about China in the Middle East.”

The US invasion of Iraq and American “double standards” on the Palestinian conflict – on which China has long claimed to be neutral – have created a bad Middle Eastern perception of the West. As a result, the Middle East is much more open to China’s growing global influence than ever, according to experts.

“China becomes more influential in proportion to the disillusionment and discontent of Gulf states with the US. The more Washington alienates the Gulf states, the more China finds greater opportunities to expand its ties and cooperation with the Gulf,” says Sami Hamdi, a Middle Eastern political analyst and head of the International Interest, a political risk group.

While China's previous Middle Eastern stances were “limited due to Gulf attitudes of flirting for the sake of annoying the US”, Beijing’s well-thought-out recent moves aim to gradually wean the region’s dependency off the US in the long-term, Hamdi tells TRT World. “Strengthening ties with China are being seen as an important means of achieving that,” he adds.

Among other Middle Eastern states, Riyadh has occasionally been disappointed by the US disregard for Iran-backed pressure against the Gulf state. This disappointment has increased the sentiment in Riyadh to seek other allies like China, particularly after the Houthis, a Tehran-supported Yemeni group, attacked the kingdom’s biggest oil facilities last year. Saudis have fought a brutal war with the Houthis in Yemen since 2015.

On the other hand, Iran, an anti-Western state which has long been targeted by US sanctions, has strengthened its rapprochement policy with China following the Trump administration's withdrawal from the landmark nuclear deal. Tehran also signed a $400 billion deal with the Asian giant last year.

In the end, the West appears to be at a loss in terms of securing the interests of both Saudis and Iranians, the two archenemies fighting for supremacy across the Middle East.

China’s deepening relations with the Middle East emanates from the need of both sides, according to Hongda. “Many countries in the Middle East also have internal needs for diplomatic diversification,” adds Hongda.

But Galia Lavi, an Israeli researcher and Deputy Director of The Diane and Guilford Glazer Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies, sees China’s Middle East opening as a “mainly business-oriented” approach rather than as a political engagement.

While she assesses China’s Middle East policy as “a big question” in terms of its direction, she still believes it’s based on the country’s “diverse economic ties” with the turbulent region, aiming to keep the situation calm and safe for open supply chains, a crucial interest for Beijing’s soft power status.

Sami al Arian, a Palestinian-American professor and director at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Sabahattin Zaim University, has similar thoughts. “So far, China's policy in the Middle East has been to concentrate on economic gains and economic security in terms of energy security."

“If we look at China's relationship with Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, it’s pretty much concerned about securing its energy needs in oil and gas. This hasn't really evolved yet into a geopolitical competition to try to gain political advantages or military bases or any of the sort that the US has enjoyed for the past half century or more,” Arian tells TRT World.

Challenging the US?

Experts, however, don’t see clear signs of a Chinese challenge in the Middle East against the world’s biggest military and economic power.

“China's deepening relations with the Middle East cannot be simply regarded as a challenge to the US. If the US can meet the development needs of Middle Eastern countries and their people, I believe that the US will still be popular in the Middle East. Not to mention that so far, no country has the hard power to challenge the US in the Middle East,” says Hongda.

While Lavi finds China’s recent Middle East moves like the Saudi-Iran deal as “disturbing”, she does not think that Beijing’s policies can amount to challenging the US, adding that the Asian giant does not aim to replace the US as the policeman of the Middle East.

In the mid or long term, China will probably not have military bases in the Middle East to challenge the US presence because Beijing does not have an aggressive global military posture except its own region in the Pacific, according to Arian.

Some experts, including Henry Kissinger, a top diplomacy figure, also feel that China’s Saudi-Iran deal might increase concerns in Israel, a nemesis of Tehran and a powerful US ally, which might become more careful in targeting Iranian assets across the Middle East after seeing Beijing’s rapprochement with the Shia-majority state.

According to Kissinger, both Israeli and American pressure on Tehran now needs “to take into account” Chinese interests in Iran. But as time goes by, “Outside forces such as the US and Israel will try to poison this deal,” Arian views.

As long as the US continues to keep large military bases across the Middle East and the economic priorities of the Gulf states aim to attract Western companies more than Chinese companies, it will be difficult for Beijing to challenge Washington’s power base in the region, according to Hamdi.

China is taking advantage of Western loopholes in the Middle East, expanding its influence in the region rather than challenging the US, says Hamdi. The Chinese strategy’s long-term success largely depends on both Beijing’s capabilities to capitalise on Western failures and how much Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are “ready for any US backlash” if their ties with Beijing develop into higher levels, he adds.

Pantucci, the China expert, also thinks that it's far too early to say that China has replaced the US in the Middle East because the Saudis and others in the region continue to see the US as a critical security guarantor.

Source: TRTworld.com

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow on Monday for a three-day state visit to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. During the summit, the two sides will discuss strategic cooperation in the energy and military spheres, as well as the Ukraine conflict.

Xi said he was happy to be back in Russia after landing at Vnukovo Airport, and stressed the importance of strong relations between Beijing and Moscow, not just for the nations themselves but also for the wider international community.

The Chinese leader asserted that together with Russia, his nation is ready to “defend with resolve the UN-centric international system.” The two countries would endeavor to “abide by true multipolarity and foster a multipolar world with democratized international relations, to encourage the development of global affairs in a direction that would be more just and rational,” Xi added.

Later in the day, the Chinese leader is scheduled to hold an informal meeting with Putin which will focus on “key and sensitive issues,” according to Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov.

The main round of talks, however, will take place on Tuesday, with the Chinese leader also expected to meet with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Later, the Russian and Chinese delegations will hold negotiations in an expanded format.

In total, Moscow and Beijing are set to sign a dozen documents outlining bilateral cooperation, including two major joint statements.

Russian officials previously said that the historic visit, which comes at a time when relations between Moscow and Beijing are at an all-time high, should give new impetus to bilateral ties. At the same time, Moscow expects the summit to be business-like and “unburdened by any additional ceremonial things.”

The Ukraine conflict is expected to loom large on the agenda. China has not condemned Moscow’s military operation in the neighboring country nor taken part in the Western sanctions, while repeatedly calling for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that after Xi’s visit to Russia, he plans to speak with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, in a bid to play a more prominent role in mediating an end to the conflict.

Source: Russia Today

Credit Suisse will be taken over by Swiss banking giant UBS, the Swiss federal government said on Sunday.

On Friday, the liquidity outflows and market volatility showed that it was no longer possible to restore the necessary confidence and that a swift and stabilizing solution was absolutely necessary, the government said.

"In this difficult situation, the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS is the best solution for restoring the confidence that has been lacking in financial markets recently, and for best managing the risk to our country and its citizens," the government said.

This photo taken on Feb. 13, 2023 shows a building of Credit Suisse, Switzerland's second-largest bank, in Lucerne, Switzerland. (Xinhua/Lian Yi)

Under the terms of the all-share transaction, Credit Suisse shareholders will receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held, equivalent to CHF 0.76/share for a total consideration of 3 billion Swiss francs, UBS said in a statement published on Sunday.

The combination is expected to create a business with more than 5 trillion U.S. dollars in total invested assets and sustainable value opportunities, the statement said.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) will provide substantial liquidity assistance to support UBS's takeover of Credit Suisse, said the Swiss central bank in a statement published on Sunday.

This takeover was made possible with the support of the Swiss federal government, the Swiss financial market supervisory authority FINMA and the SNB, the statement said.

A man walks past Credit Suisse in Geneva, Switzerland, on March 16, 2023. (Xinhua/Lian Yi)

With the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, a solution has been found to secure financial stability and protect the Swiss economy in this exceptional situation, the statement said.

Both banks have unrestricted access to the SNB's existing facilities, through which they can obtain liquidity from the SNB, the statement said. (1 Swiss franc = 1.08 U.S. dollar) ¦

Source: Xinhua Finance Agency

Kabul – As funding shortfalls force WFP to reduce its lifesaving assistance to four million Afghans, WFP renews its call for urgent and continued support for critical operations in Afghanistan. With severe hunger hitting nearly 20 million Afghans - six million of them one step away from famine - the international community must prioritize the basic needs of the most vulnerable people of Afghanistan.

“The country is at the highest risk of famine in a quarter of a century and WFP’s food assistance is the last lifeline for millions of Afghans,” said Hsiao-Wei Lee, WFP Country Director in Afghanistan. “The reduction of food assistance comes when Afghans are emerging from another freezing winter and are already worn-down from battling one crisis after another. Unless humanitarian support is sustained, hundreds of thousands more Afghans will need assistance to survive.”

At current funding levels, WFP will only be able to provide crucial support to four million people out of the 13 million planned in April.

To ensure support for the people of Afghanistan at half rations, WFP urgently needs US$93 million by April and US$800 million for the next six months.

WFP’s unavoidable reduced assistance comes at the most difficult time of the year for rural families as their food stocks have run out before the next harvest is due in May. Levels of moderate acute malnutrition too are the highest ever recorded in the country and an estimated four million children and pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition this year.

Funding permitting, this year WFP plans to reach 21 million people with lifesaving food, nutrition and livelihood support. Last year, WFP supported 23 million people – 12 million of whom were women and girls -- thanks to funding from its generous donors. WFP distributed more than 1 million metric tons of food and US$326 million in cash or vouchers to help families survive.

The United Nations World Food Programme is the world’s largest humanitarian organization, saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of climate change.

Source: EMM/ SAVING LIVES CHANGING LIVES

Deep in the jungles of central India, forest-dwelling tribes are marking the one-year anniversary of a continuous agitation against a new coal mine to be developed by the Adani Group. In recent months, they've received a show of support from high-profile politicians and celebrity activists. But in this David vs Goliath battle, a victory for the tribes will be hard won.

The village of Hariharpur in the state of Chhattisgarh stands on the precipice of two discordant worlds. To its east, the myriad greys of the decade-old Parsa East Kete Basan (PEKB) open cast coal mine, operated by the Adani Group, stretch as far as the eye can see. To the other side of this hamlet of a few scattered homes, lies the sprawling expanse of the Hasdeo forest, under which billions of tons of power grade coal still rests unexplored.

These woods are said to be the largest contiguous stretch of dense forestland in central India, spanning 170,000 hectares or 1700 sq km (65.6 sq miles) and often called the "lungs of Chhattisgarh". They are also home to the proposed Lemru Elephant Reserve.

Tribal villagers here have strenuously opposed the proposed opening of the new coal mine for over a decade. But despite staunch resistance and warnings from the government's own forest research agency of a negative impact on the local habitat and forest ecology, final clearances for the mine were granted last year, triggering an indefinite agitation that's gone on every day since 2 March 2022.

Interestingly, it is the Congress-led Chhattisgarh government, which has time and again taken on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for favouring the Adani group, which has given this project the go-ahead.

Mounting resistance

A thatched tent off the driveway that leads to Hariharpur has been the epicentre of the continuing tribal protests for the past year. Every day, villagers from the three nearby hamlets of Fatehpur, Ghatbarra and Salhi hold peaceful sit-in demonstrations here.

Once a week, hundreds mobilise to chant slogans, imploring Adani to "go back".

"The authorities acquired our land illegally by submitting forged documents of the village council meeting. We had never consented to land acquisition," Muneshwar Singh Porte, member of the Hasdeo Arand Bachao Sangharsh Samiti resistance group told the BBC.

The Chhattisgarh government didn't respond to the BBC's query. But the Adani Group refuted these allegations, saying it had always conducted its operations "in total compliance within the laws of the land".

It said the Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam (RRVUNL), which owns both the existing and proposed mines (along with the Adani group as the mine developer and operator and majority shareholder with a 74% share), handles land acquisition, rehabilitation and resettlement of people within "stringent legal and regulatory frameworks" and had "duly conducted and recorded the process" of getting villagers' consent.

A tycoon’s wealth woes and India’s green energy dreams

But across the villages we travelled to, the protesting tribes alleged that the views of the village councils or gram sabhas - mandatory for consideration by law in remote, tribal areas like the Hasdeo Arand region - were either repeatedly violated or sidestepped.

People from at least three villages have petitioned the district administration, seeking an investigation into these violations. The papers, which the BBC has been able to obtain, are also part of an appeal being heard in the Supreme Court against land and environmental clearances granted to the project.

"These forests are where our deities live; we don't worship idols. Mining will destroy our ancient traditions and way of life," Ramlal Karyam, a protester said. He and several others had walked 300km to the state capital, Raipur, to demand a halt in mining activity in 2021.

Growing differences

Getting these testimonies on camera isn't easy. As the protests here reach a tipping point, the forest has become a surveillance zone.

Throughout our two days in these jungles, we were followed around by people on bikes and SUVs. Some threaten to break our vehicle as we try to enter one of the villages - Ghatbarra - to speak to its headman.

These are young men from within the community, fiercely in favour of mining development, and while still in a minority, their voices appear to have become increasingly louder.

"For there to be progress, there will have to be some destruction," said Keshav Singh Porte, a resident of Fatehpur village, who along with two other men circled our car on a narrow road leading to Ghatbarra.

"We have bigger aspirations than foraging for forest produce," he added, saying there was a need to "balance the narrative" around the protests.

On our way to another village, Chandra Kumar and his brother try to stop our car.

Mr Kumar admitted that he works as a technician at the existing mine Adani Group mine and said the company had brought several positive developments to the villages, including a school, water and healthcare facilities.

Mob storms police station in India Adani port protest

The Adani Group told the BBC they had undertaken a slew of initiatives for the empowerment of the locals which included setting up a school for nearly 800 students, training over 4,000 youth in vocational activities and managing local mobile clinics among other things.

It also said the PEKB mine, which has been producing coal since 2013 to meet RRVUNL's fuel requirements, has alone generated "over 15,000 direct and indirect employment opportunities in the district" and this "could not have been possible without the strong support from locals".

Several villagers and activists, however, allege that positively engaging with the community was a way for Adani to persuade them to drop their protest. They claimed the company had recruited young men in every hamlet across the forest to keep a watch on their activities and prevent the resistance from spiralling out of control.

Turning tide

For a short while last year, it appeared like the tribes were getting their voices heard.

One of India's most prominent politicians Rahul Gandhi openly expressed disagreement with his own party's decision in the state to allow mining in the region.

Just last month, the most visible face of India's farmers protests, Rakesh Tikait, declared that protests would intensify if a single tree was felled.

The Congress even wrote to the federal government asking it to rollback the mining clearances.

But Alok Shukla, a prominent social activist in the region calls this a "delaying tactic" by the state government. He says the state has the constitutional right to withdraw the clearances and doesn't need permissions from the federal government.

Chhattisgarh "lacks the political will" to act quickly because there's pressure from the Rajasthan government, another-Congress ruled state whose electricity generation company will eventually receive coal from Parsa, he adds.

Visiting Australia's controversial Adani mine

Elections are also round the corner in Chhattisgarh, which complicates the political environment. And a long, hot summer, with the spectre of blackouts will heighten politicians' focus on energy security.

The Supreme Court has refused to stay the project, saying that the pending petitions challenging land acquisition cannot be treated as any kind of restriction against mining, and that the rights of the tribes will be determined separately but "not at the cost of development".

But the protesters are confident they will prevail.

"We have faith in the courts," said Umeshwar Singh Armo, a prominent member of the resistance group. "This isn't just a fight for Hasdeo. We are fighting for this country and for the world, which is staring at the dangers of climate change and environmental degradation."

Source: BBC

Chinese President Xi Jinping is embarking on his first trip to Russia since the country invaded Ukraine last year, and is set to sit down for talks with President Vladimir Putin.

Our Russia editor Steve Rosenberg and China correspondent Stephen McDonell have been considering what each side seeks to gain from the talks, and what we know about the relationship between the two countries.

Imagine you're Vladimir Putin.

You've started a war that hasn't gone to plan; you're up to your eyeballs in sanctions; and now the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for war crimes with your name on it.

It's at times like these you need a friend.

Enter Xi Jinping.

President Xi once called President Putin his "best friend". The two have much in common: they are both authoritarian leaders, and both embrace the idea of a "multi-polar world" devoid of US domination.

In Moscow they're expected to sign an agreement on "deepening the comprehensive partnership" between their two countries.

The Chinese president's state visit is a clear sign of support for Russia - and its president - at a time when the Kremlin is under intense international pressure.

And Russia's relationship with China is fundamental to withstanding that.

"Putin is building his own bloc. He doesn't trust the West anymore - and he never will again," believes journalist Dmitry Muratov, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate.

"So, Putin's looking for allies and trying to make Russia part of a common fortress with China, as well as with India, some parts of Latin America and Africa. Putin is building his anti-Western world."

In this "anti-Western world", Moscow is heavily reliant on Beijing - now more than ever, as the war rages in Ukraine.

"War has become the organising principle of Russian domestic politics, foreign policy and economic policy. There is an obsession with destroying Ukraine," concludes Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"For that you need arms, money and an economic lifeline. China provides Russia with, at least, components for arms, and civilian technology that can be used for military purposes. It definitely provides money."

To counter Western sanctions, and to shore up the Russian economy, Russia has been boosting trade with China, primarily in the energy sector. Expect oil, gas and energy pipelines to be on the agenda at the Putin-Xi talks.

But, once again, imagine you're Putin. One year ago you and Xi proclaimed that your partnership has "no limits". If that's really the case, might you expect China now to help you out in Ukraine, by supplying Russia with lethal aid and facilitating a military victory for Moscow? The US claims that China is considering doing just that. Beijing denies it.

As they say in Russia, "there's no harm wishing for something" - but it doesn't mean it's going to happen. If there's one thing the last year has shown it is that the "no-limits partnership" does have limits. Up to this point Beijing has apparently been reluctant to provide direct military assistance to Moscow, for fear of triggering secondary sanctions in the West against Chinese companies. As far as Beijing is concerned: sorry Russia… it's China first.

That very point was made very bluntly recently on a Russian state TV talk show.

"Ahead of President Xi's visit to Moscow, some experts here have been overexcited, elated even," noted military pundit Mikhail Khodarenok.

"But China can have only one ally: China itself. China can only have one set of interests: pro-Chinese ones. Chinese foreign policy is utterly devoid of altruism."

Officially Xi Jinping's visit to Russia is to promote bilateral ties between two neighbours and certainly these governments say they are becoming ever closer.

There are agreements to be signed, meals to be had, photo opportunities to be staged.

All governments have such visits, so why all the attention on this one?

Well, for one, this is the leader of one of the world's two great superpowers visiting an ally - who happens to be the person who has unleashed a bloody invasion of another country in Europe - in 2023.

Many analysts have pondered what China might do if it looks like Russia is facing a clear, humiliating defeat on the battlefield.

The Chinese government says it is neutral. Would it just step back and let that happen, or start pumping in weapons to give the Russian army a better edge?

After Xi arrives in Moscow, he and his Russian counterpart may speak about other things, but all the attention will be on the Ukraine crisis.

His signals to Vladimir Putin can only go three ways:

1. Time to consider pulling back with some face-saving compromise

2. Green light to keep going or even go in harder

3. Nothing either way from China's leader

China is coming off the back of brokering a deal in which Iran and Saudi Arabia have re-established diplomatic relations. It is becoming ever more prepared to inject itself into matters way beyond its shores. This would seem to make option three unlikely.

With option one, if it involves Beijing again being able to claim the mantle of global peacemaker following the Iran-Saudi deal, this would be quite a neat feather in Xi's cap.

The main problem with that option is the extent to which it would also benefit China.

The bleakest of options is number two, but there is a reading whereby Russia's war with Ukraine plays into Beijing's geopolitical strategy. The Kremlin is taking on the West, eating up Nato resources and, the longer the war goes on, the more it tests the appetite of the Western public for yet more conflict if the People's Liberation Army should move to take Taiwan by force.

The calculation from Beijing could be that, the longer the war continues, the fewer people are going to want to get involved in another one.

The Chinese government's claim to neutrality also does not match the state-controlled news reporting here. The evening TV bulletins run the Kremlin line and devote a huge proportion of their coverage to blaming the "the West" for the "conflict". It doesn't speak about a "war" and would never dream of referring to an "invasion" of Ukraine.

Publicly, China says the sovereignty of all nations should be respected (ie Ukraine's), but so should the "legitimate security concerns" of other countries (ie Russia).

Yet it is not Kyiv where Xi Jinping is visiting. It's Moscow.

So, when Xi leaves Moscow in a few days, Putin will either be worried about wavering Chinese support or buoyed by the backing of one of the two most powerful people on the planet.

The smart money seems to be on the latter.

Source: BBC