Dhaka: Bangladesh's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 57.8 in July, indicating a strengthening economy driven by a manufacturing rebound that coincided with the strongest monthly export earnings in nearly a year, as revealed in a study unveiled on Monday.
According to United News of Bangladesh, the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), in collaboration with Policy Exchange Bangladesh, presented the findings at a seminar at the MCCI office in Gulshan. The study highlighted that agriculture and services continued to expand in July, while construction activity remained slightly below the neutral 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Manufacturing led the recovery with a reading of 65.4, followed by services at 56.0, agriculture at 55.2, and construction at 49.3.
The PMI, a monthly, survey-based economic indicator, tracks the health of an economy through responses from senior private-sector executives across agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and services. A reading above 50 suggests expansion, below 50 indicates contraction, and a reading of 50 denotes no change from the previous month.
Citing central bank and academic research, including findings from the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the study noted that PMI readings are released ahead of official GDP data, are not revised after publication, and have historically shown a strong correlation with actual GDP growth in major economies. The Bank for International Settlements has found PMIs to be reliable indicators of real economic activity.
The Bangladesh PMI programme was initiated in 2022 during the COVID-19 recovery period, with concept development in early 2023 and formal initiation in November 2023, supported by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in association with the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM). The first survey round was conducted in December 2023, followed by three additional rounds by March 2024 to finalize the methodology and build the survey panel.
The index currently relies on a panel of 400 companies across four sectors: services (53%), manufacturing (23%), construction (12.5%), and agriculture (11.5%). This panel represents approximately 100% of GDP-weighted coverage across major economic sub-sectors, including wholesale and retail trade, real estate, transportation, and various manufacturing and agricultural industries.
The presentation traced the PMI's trajectory from December 2023 to July 2026, highlighting sharp fluctuations tied to specific events. These included a 27-point plunge between June and July 2024 during the July Uprising, an 8.8-point drop between March and April 2025 due to US tariffs and energy constraints, a 7.8-point slide between October and November 2025 amid weak global demand, and a 9.9-point fall between May and June 2026 as manufacturing and construction slipped into contraction.
The seminar also addressed persistent shortages in Bangladesh's economic data infrastructure, noting that critical surveys like the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) and Labour Force Survey (LFS) occur infrequently, leaving governments and businesses to rely on outdated data. Speakers emphasized the need for frequent, rapid surveys and modern economic indices such as the PMI to generate real-time insights and strengthen evidence-based decision-making across the economy.
Representatives from major Bangladeshi companies, including BRAC Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Robi Axiata, Pran-RFL Group, Square Pharmaceuticals, Berger Paints, and ACI, participated in the seminar, reflecting a broad interest across the four surveyed sectors.